Three more markets reached recovery in June despite home appreciation declines

NORFOLK, Va. (August 27, 2015) – Homes.com®, leading online real estate destination, has released its June 2015 Local Market Index, a price performance summary of repeat sales in the top 100 markets, and the companion Midsize Markets Report for the next 200 largest markets. Among the nation’s top 300 markets, 142 markets (47 percent) achieved full pricing recovery, three more than the 139 markets reported in May.

In June, 99 of the top 100 markets increased their 3-month average. However, for the first time in six months, one of the top 100 markets declined; New Haven-Milford, CT lost 0.07 percent of its value over the 3-month average. Moreover, the 3-month average increase for all top 100 markets fell to 0.33 percent, down from 0.54 percent in May.

National Summary – West Dominates Annual Gains

On an annual basis, all top 100 markets increased. For the third month in a row, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA reached the top annual spots with an annual percent change of 7.33 percent and 7.3 percent. The West remained dominant in annual percentage gains with all ten markets seeing yearly increases. Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA had the smallest annual percent increase, 1.48 percent. The average yearly increase for all top 100 markets was 4.47 percent, slightly lower than 4.52 percent in May.

“The vast majority of markets across the nation are making good progress toward full price recovery. Though the pace of appreciation slowed slightly over the past three months, we are now only three percent from the halfway point for the nation’s top 300 markets. Full price recovery is critical for homeowners seeking to restore their lost equity after the housing crash, as well as for the economic viability of their communities,” said David Mele, president of Homes.com.

Of the top 100 markets, the markets with minimal price declines from peak prices have achieved an average rebound percentage of 109 percent.  The average rebound percentage of the moderate price decline markets was 101 percent of the prior peak price. Of the severe price decline markets, the average rebound percentage was 84 percent.

Southern Markets Lead Recovery; West Remains Dominant in Annual Gains

The South continued to dominate recovery among the top 100 markets in June, while the Midwest came in second with 11 markets recovering.

In June, 49 of the top 100 markets measured continued to show a complete price recovery — one more than in May. Dayton, OH was the newest addition and rebounded at 100.09 percent.

The West remained dominant in annual percentage gains, with all ten markets seeing yearly increases. Three markets had at least a 7 percent increase yearly, while seven markets had an annual percentage increase of at least 6 percent. Five markets were from California, which is the most from a single state. Eight markets were on the Pacific Coast, while Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO and Boise City, ID were the only markets considered Mountain region states.

Of the top performing regions among the top 100 markets, the South also had the greatest 3-month average increase of 0.6 percent, followed by the Midwest at 0.59 percent. Of the bottom performing regions, the Northeast saw its 3-month average decline by 0.07 percent.

Over a 3-month average, the top market was Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL which earned a 0.6 percent increase, followed by Toledo, OH with a 0.59 percent increase. Looking at the regional breakdown for the 3-month average, three were from the South, four from the West and three from the Midwest. Three of the four western markets are located in the state of California which is the most from a single state.

Largest Markets Summary:

  • Among the largest 100 markets, the top performer on a month-to-month basis was Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL at 0.6 percent, while the bottom performer was New Haven-Milford, CT at -0.07 percent.
  • No markets increased over 1 percent on a 3-month average. The 3-month average increase range for the top markets was 0.52 to 0.6 percent, significantly lower than the 0.8 to 1.0 percent seen last month.
  • The five large markets farthest from full recovery were Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL (72.42 percent rebound percentage), Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (71.64 percent), Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (70.93 percent), Stockton-Lodi, CA (70.26 percent) and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (68.39 percent).

Two More Midsize Markets Rebounded in June

A total of 93 midsize markets are now more than 100 percent rebounded, up two from May’s report. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO and Eugene, OR were the newest midsize markets to rebound with percentages of 100.01 and 100.0 percent.

On a yearly basis, the ten fastest appreciating midsize markets came from the West.  All top ten markets had at least a 7 percent increase.  Six of the top ten markets were on the Pacific coast, while four markets were closer to the Mountain region.

In June, the market with the best 3-month average was Ocala, FL which increased 0.86 percent. No midsize markets increased over 1 percent. The 3-month average percentage range was 0.69 to 0.86 percent — lower than 0.95 to 1.15 percent in the prior month’s report. The top ten 3-month average markets were in the West (5), South (4) and Midwest (1).

In June’s Local Market Report, 197 of 200 midsize markets increased over a 3-month average. Three markets decreased their 3-month averages:  Portland-South Portland, ME, Binghamton, NY and Bangor, ME. The 3-month average rate of appreciation for all midsize markets was 0.36 percent, which was lower than the 0.5 percent in May. On an annual basis, all midsize markets increased for the month of June.  The annual average increase for all midsize markets was 4.73 percent, which was slightly higher than May’s 4.67 percent.

Midsize Markets by Region and Division:

  • The top performing region on a 3-month average was the South.
  • Each of the top ten performers within each of the four regions saw an increase of at least 0.3 percent.
  • The Northeast was the only region with markets that decreased.

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