Some 55 percent of top 300 markets now fully recovered
NORFOLK, Va. (September 28, 2015) – Homes.com®, leading online real estate destination, has released its July 2015 Local Market Index, a price performance summary of repeat sales in the top 100 markets, and the companion Midsize Markets Report for the next 200 largest markets. Among the nation’s top 300 markets, 166 or 55 percent have now achieved full price recovery — 24 more than the 142 markets reported in June.
By July, 50 of the nation’s 100 largest markets experienced a complete price recovery, one more than the prior month. Additionally, 116 out of 200 midsize markets saw a complete price recovery, 23 more than reported in June.*
July saw 16 of the top 100 markets post a decline in their 3-month averages. The long-term view remains robust though, with all 100 markets continuing to post year-over-year gains.
“We’ve reached an important benchmark in the U.S. housing market with the majority of the nation’s top 300 markets recovering at least their peak prices. Most homeowners in these markets have now regained lost equity from the housing crash, and we’re seeing good progress toward restoring equity to the remainder of the nation,” said David Mele, president of Homes.com.
Southern Markets Lead Recovery; West Remains Dominant in Annual Gains
As of July, 50 out of the top 100 markets had shown a complete price recovery. Richmond, VA rebounded at 100.18 and became the 50th market among the top 100 to achieve that status.
Of the 200 midsize markets, 116 have now achieved a complete price recovery. The most recent midsize markets to reach rebound status include Grand Junction, CO; Hattiesburg, MS; Springfield, MO; Charlottesville, VA; Olympia-Tumwater, WA; Niles-Benton Harbor, MI; Dalton, GA; Tupelo, MS; Dothan, AL; Athens-Clarke County, GA; Muskegon, MI; Montgomery, AL; Duluth, MN-WI; Eugene, OR; and Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO.
Of the top 100 markets, the markets with minimal price declines from peak prices before the housing crash have achieved an average rebound of 109 percent. The average rebound of the moderate price decline markets was 101 percent of the prior peak price. Of the severe price decline markets, the average rebound was 84 percent.
The South continued to dominate recovery among the top 100 markets in July, with 23 markets recovered, followed by the Midwest with 11 markets fully recovered. Both the West and South had eight markets each that have achieved rebound status.
National Summary – West Continues to Dominate Annual Gains
Boise City, ID edged out Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA in July for the top spot with an annual percentage change of 7.09 percent. Strong progress continues in the West where nine of ten of the top performing markets are located. However, that was one fewer than in June, with Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI making the list. Within the West, California continued to dominate with four of the ten top markets.
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT posted the largest 3-month average gain in July at 0.59 percent, followed by other markets in the Northeast including Springfield, MA which had the second highest increase at 0.52 percent, and Providence-Warwick, RI-MA and Worcester, MA-CT that occupied the fifth and seventh places, respectively.
From a regional perspective, the market with the largest 3-month average gain of 0.59 percent was located in the Northeast. This was followed by the West at 0.48 percent. The Northeast also had the worst performing market in July at -0.19 percent.
Largest Markets Summary
Western markets continued to lead the recovery among top 100 markets. Markets with the highest rebound percentages were Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (115.43 percent); Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (113.41 percent); Austin-Round Rock, TX (113.32 percent); Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (112.84 percent); and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX (112.76 percent).
Large markets trailing the national rebound were those that suffered large numbers of foreclosures and price declines during the housing crash. The bottom five markets by rebound percentage were Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL (72.49 percent); Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (71.72 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (71.21 percent); Stockton-Lodi, CA (70.61 percent); and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (68.47 percent).
On a year-over-year basis, the West also dominated. The top five markets achieving annualized gains were Boise City, ID; Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA; and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA.
Top performing markets by region were Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT; Stockton-Lodi, CA; Toledo, OH; and Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC.
Western Region Dominates Midsize Markets; Midwest Markets Gaining
The midsize market with the best 3-month average growth in July was Bangor, ME which increased 0.88 percent. It was followed by Gainesville, GA which grew by 0.56 percent. Nearly all of the top-performing midsize markets on a 3-month basis were located in the eastern portion of the U.S., with strength particularly focused in the Northeast.
Though western markets continued to lead the list of midsize markets achieving rebound status on an annualized basis, midwestern markets have begun to move into the top ten. Appleton, WI and Racine, WI, made the Top 10 midsize list in July with year-over-year gains of 7.07 percent and 7.03 percent, respectively.
In July, 164 of 200 midsize markets increased their 3-month averages, down from 197 the prior month. The greatest number of decreasing markets was found in the southern region (16) and the northeast region (10). As was the case with the top 100, all midsize markets continued to show year-over-year gains.
Midsize Markets by Region and Division:
All five of the markets posting the best 3-month gains were eastern: Bangor, ME; Gainesville, GA; Rocky Mount, NC; Manchester-Nashua, NH; and Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA.
Short-term strength was seen in the East, with the top performing markets located in the New England and South Atlantic regions.
Short-term weakness was seen in the East South Central division and the Mid-Atlantic division.
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*Note: July numbers include corrected midsize market data, accounting for an additional 23 markets.